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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

South Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:37.0
Current RPI:37
Expected SOS:162
Current SOS:162
Current Record:24-6
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:16-1
Expected Conf Record:16-1
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-0
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:101


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-637.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UC Irvine (119.0)BWH65-54W100%0.0
11-14Alabama St. (333.0)SWACH94-63W100%0.0
11-17Kansas (5.0)B12A98-64L0%0.0
11-20Wyoming (98.0)MWCN77-65L0%0.0
11-21Iowa (157.0)B10N80-72W100%0.0
11-22Buffalo (25.0)MACN80-94W100%0.0
11-28Mississippi (141.0)SECA97-99W100%0.0
12-2Missouri St. (136.0)MVCN53-73L0%0.0
12-5Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA95-85L0%0.0
12-12North Dakota (221.0)BSkyH99-63W100%0.0
12-15Colorado (82.0)P12A112-103L0%0.0
12-19Drake (166.0)MVCH87-74W100%0.0
12-22UMKC (256.0)WACA60-85W100%0.0
1-3North Dakota St. (210.0)SumA80-87W100%0.0
1-6Nebraska Omaha (284.0)SumA88-101W100%0.0
1-11Oral Roberts (255.0)SumH78-75W100%0.0
1-13Denver (224.0)SumH94-72W100%0.0
1-20Western Illinois (302.0)SumA70-98W100%0.0
1-24South Dakota (91.0)SumA87-68L0%0.0
1-27Fort Wayne (209.0)SumH78-76W100%0.0
1-30Nebraska Omaha (284.0)SumH80-60W100%0.0
2-1North Dakota St. (210.0)SumH82-63W100%0.0
2-8Denver (224.0)SumA77-81W100%0.0
2-10Oral Roberts (255.0)SumA75-85W100%0.0
2-17Western Illinois (302.0)SumH82-62W100%0.0
2-22South Dakota (91.0)SumH76-72W100%0.0
2-24Fort Wayne (209.0)SumA90-97W100%0.0
3-3Western Illinois (302.0)SumN66-60W100%0.0
3-5North Dakota St. (210.0)SumN78-57W100%0.0
3-6South Dakota (91.0)SumN97-87W100%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Dakota St.Sum26.6326.6383.8283.8218.0218.02
South DakotaSum6.036.0377.7877.783.353.35
North Dakota St.Sum6.016.0146.1546.15-0.46-0.46
Western IllinoisSum5.815.8138.1038.10-1.38-1.38
DenverSum4.454.4550.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum4.404.4025.9325.93-2.12-2.12
Fort WayneSum4.324.3253.8553.850.330.33
Oral RobertsSum4.324.3230.7730.77-1.66-1.66
DrakeMVC1.991.9950.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC1.951.9551.6151.610.060.06
North DakotaBSky1.841.8434.4834.48-0.57-0.57
ColoradoP121.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
UMKCWAC1.781.7828.5728.57-0.76-0.76
WyomingMWC1.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
IowaB101.751.7543.7543.75-0.22-0.22
UC IrvineBW1.731.7350.0050.000.000.00
KansasB121.721.7278.7978.790.990.99
Wichita St.Amer1.701.7077.4277.420.930.93
Alabama St.SWAC1.691.6926.6726.67-0.79-0.79
BuffaloMAC1.671.6778.1278.120.940.94
MississippiSEC1.671.6738.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Montana St.BSky0.260.2636.6736.67-0.07-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
San Jose St.MWC0.220.2210.3410.34-0.18-0.18
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2270.0070.000.090.09
Miami OHMAC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.210.2134.4834.48-0.06-0.06
TCUB120.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Kansas St.B120.190.1966.6766.670.060.06
Iowa St.B120.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.170.1777.4277.420.090.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
ArizonaP120.160.1679.4179.410.100.10
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1630.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
UCLAP120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
BradleyMVC0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
StetsonASun0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
OaklandHorz0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
USCP120.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
MinnesotaB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
WashingtonP120.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.1344.1244.12-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
Arizona St.P120.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
TulsaAmer0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
StanfordP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
AkronMAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
IUPUIHorz0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
LibertyBSth0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0980.0080.000.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
NevadaMWC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
TexasB120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.066.676.67-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0616.1316.13-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PacificWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00